BAYESIAN INFERENCE FOR A SOFTWARE RELIABILITY MODEL USING METRICS INFORMATION.

In this paper, we are concerned with predicting the number of faults N and the time to next failure of a piece of software. Information in the form of software metrics data is used to estimate the prior distribution of N via a Poisson regression model. Given failure time data, and a well known model for software failures, we show how to sample the posterior distribution using Gibbs sampling, as implemented in the package "WinBugs". The approach is illustrated with a practical example.

COHERENCE OF THE POSTERIOR PREDICTIVE P-VALUE BASED ON THE POSTERIOR ODDS.

It is well-known that classical p-values sometimes behave incoherently for testing hypotheses in the sense that, when '0 0 T .T , the support given to 0 T is greater than or equal to the support given to '0 T . This problem is also found for posterior predictive p-values (a Bayesian-motivated alternative to classical p-values). In this paper, it is proved that, under some conditions, the posterior predictive p-value based on theposterior odds is coherent, showing that the choice of a suitable discrepancy variable is crucial.

Recent changes in the pelagic ecosystem of the Iberian Atlantic in the context of multidecadal variability

Trends in ecosystem variables of the Eastern North Atlantic shelf near the Iberian Peninsula were analysed in relation to regional climate and oceanographic variability. In addition, detailed changes in oceanographic properties (surface temperature, upwelling and poleward current activity) and biological components (plankton and pelagic consumers) in the period 1989-2005 were compared with the main trends and multidecadal periods observed in time series dating back to 1950. In contrast to previous studies, the North Atlantic Oscillation did not appear as the main influence in the climate of the North Iberian region, while East-West and subtropical gradients were the dominant modes. Climatic oscillations at decadal scales were paralleled by similar oscillations in oceanographic and biological variables, but the latter appeared weakly related to climate. Time- lags of up to 5 years in the biological response may partly explain these relationships. The main planktivorous fish species (sardine and anchovy) alternate in periods of 10-15 years of relative dominance, in synchrony with equivalent species around the world. In contrast, plankton cycles appear greatly modified after 1990 in coincidence with shifts in climatic and oceanographic variables. Subregional variability indicated divergent trends in biological variables, particularly the zooplankton increase off A Coruña and the decrease in the Bay of Biscay since 1990. Such divergences are related to direct and indirect effects of global changes in this transitional upwelling region

Effectiveness and safety of first-generation protease inhibitors in clinical practice: Hepatitis C virus patients with advanced fibrosis

AIM: To evaluates the effectiveness and safety of the first generation, NS3/4A protease inhibitors (PIs) in clinical practice against chronic C virus, especially in patients with advanced fibrosis. METHODS: Prospective study and non-experimental analysis of a multicentre cohort of 38 Spanish hospitals that includes patients with chronic hepatitis C genotype 1, treatment-nai¨ve (TN) or treatment-experienced (TE), who underwent triple therapy with the first generation NS3/4A protease inhibitors, boceprevir (BOC) and telaprevir (TVR), in combination with pegylated interferon and ribavirin. The patients were treatment in routine practice settings. Data on the study population and on adverse clinical and virologic effects were compiled during the treatment period and during follow up. RESULTS: One thousand and fifty seven patients were included, 405 (38%) were treated with BOC and 652 (62%) with TVR. Of this total, 30% (n = 319) were TN and the remaining were TE: 28% (n = 298) relapsers, 12% (n = 123) partial responders (PR), 25% (n = 260) null-responders (NR) and for 5% (n = 57) with prior response unknown. The rate of sustained virologic response (SVR) by intention-to-treatment (ITT) was greater in those treated with TVR (65%) than in those treated with BOC (52%) (P < 0.0001), whereas by modified intention-to-treatment (mITT) no were found significant differences. By degree of fibrosis, 56% of patients were F4 and the highest SVR rates were recorded in the non-F4 patients, both TN and TE. In the analysis by groups, the TN patients treated with TVR by ITT showed a higher SVR (P = 0.005). However, by mITT there were no significant differences between BOC and TVR. In the multivariate analysis by mITT, the significant SVR factors were relapsers, IL28B CC and non-F4; the type of treatment (BOC or TVR) was not significant. The lowest SVR values were presented by the F4-NR patients, treated with BOC (46%) or with TVR (45%). 28% of the patients interrupted the treatment, mainly by non-viral response (51%): this outcome was more frequent in the TE than in the TN patients (57% vs 40%, P = 0.01). With respect to severe haematological disorders, neutropaenia was more likely to affect the patients treated with BOC (33% vs 20%, P = 0.0001), and thrombocytopaenia and anaemia, the F4 patients (P = 0.000, P = 0.025, respectively). CONCLUSION: In a real clinical practice setting with a high proportion of patients with advanced fibrosis, effectiveness of first-generation PIs was high except for NR patients, with similar SVR rates being achieved by BOC and TVR

Relationship of Weather Types on the Seasonal and Spatial Variability of Rainfall, Runoff, and Sediment Yield in the Western Mediterranean Basin

Rainfall is the key factor to understand soil erosion processes, mechanisms, and rates. Most research was conducted to determine rainfall characteristics and their relationship with soil erosion (erosivity) but there is little information about how atmospheric patterns control soil losses, and this is important to enable sustainable environmental planning and risk prevention. We investigated the temporal and spatial variability of the relationships of rainfall, runoff, and sediment yield with atmospheric patterns (weather types, WTs) in the western Mediterranean basin. For this purpose, we analyzed a large database of rainfall events collected between 1985 and 2015 in 46 experimental plots and catchments with the aim to: (i) evaluate seasonal differences in the contribution of rainfall, runoff, and sediment yield produced by the WTs; and (ii) to analyze the seasonal efficiency of the different WTs (relation frequency and magnitude) related to rainfall, runoff, and sediment yield. The results indicate two different temporal patterns: the first weather type exhibits (during the cold period: autumn and winter) westerly flows that produce the highest rainfall, runoff, and sediment yield values throughout the territory; the second weather type exhibits easterly flows that predominate during the warm period (spring and summer) and it is located on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula. However, the cyclonic situations present high frequency throughout the whole year with a large influence extended around the western Mediterranean basin. Contrary, the anticyclonic situations, despite of its high frequency, do not contribute significantly to the total rainfall, runoff, and sediment (showing the lowest efficiency) because of atmospheric stability that currently characterize this atmospheric pattern. Our approach helps to better understand the relationship of WTs on the seasonal and spatial variability of rainfall, runoff and sediment yield with a regional scale based on the large dataset and number of soil erosion experimental stations.Spanish Government (Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, MINECO) and FEDER Projects: CGL2014 52135-C3-3-R, ESP2017-89463-C3-3-R, CGL2014-59946-R, CGL2015-65569-R, CGL2015-64284-C2-2-R, CGL2015-64284-C2-1-R, CGL2016-78075-P, GL2008-02879/BTE, LEDDRA 243857, RECARE-FP7, CGL2017-83866-C3-1-R, and PCIN-2017-061/AEI. Dhais Peña-Angulo received a “Juan de la Cierva” postdoctoral contract (FJCI-2017-33652 Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, MEC). Ana Lucia acknowledge the "Brigitte-Schlieben-Lange-Programm". The “Geoenvironmental Processes and Global Change” (E02_17R) was financed by the Aragón Government and the European Social Fund. José Andrés López-Tarazón acknowledges the Secretariat for Universities and Research of the Department of the Economy and Knowledge of the Autonomous Government of Catalonia for supporting the Consolidated Research Group 2014 SGR 645 (RIUS- Fluvial Dynamics Research Group). Artemi Cerdà thank the funding of the OCDE TAD/CRP JA00088807. José Martínez-Fernandez acknowledges the project Unidad de Excelencia CLU-2018-04 co-funded by FEDER and Castilla y León Government. Ane Zabaleta is supported by the Hydro-Environmental Processes consolidated research group (IT1029-16, Basque Government). This paper has the benefit of the Lab and Field Data Pool created within the framework of the COST action CONNECTEUR (ES1306)

Relationship of Weather Types on the Seasonal and Spatial Variability of Rainfall, Runoff, and Sediment Yield in the Western Mediterranean Basin

Rainfall is the key factor to understand soil erosion processes, mechanisms, and rates. Most research was conducted to determine rainfall characteristics and their relationship with soil erosion (erosivity) but there is little information about how atmospheric patterns control soil losses, and this is important to enable sustainable environmental planning and risk prevention. We investigated the temporal and spatial variability of the relationships of rainfall, runoff, and sediment yield with atmospheric patterns (weather types, WTs) in the western Mediterranean basin. For this purpose, we analyzed a large database of rainfall events collected between 1985 and 2015 in 46 experimental plots and catchments with the aim to: (i) evaluate seasonal differences in the contribution of rainfall, runoff, and sediment yield produced by the WTs; and (ii) to analyze the seasonal efficiency of the different WTs (relation frequency and magnitude) related to rainfall, runoff, and sediment yield. The results indicate two different temporal patterns: the first weather type exhibits (during the cold period: autumn and winter) westerly flows that produce the highest rainfall, runoff, and sediment yield values throughout the territory; the second weather type exhibits easterly flows that predominate during the warm period (spring and summer) and it is located on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula. However, the cyclonic situations present high frequency throughout the whole year with a large influence extended around the western Mediterranean basin. Contrary, the anticyclonic situations, despite of its high frequency, do not contribute significantly to the total rainfall, runoff, and sediment (showing the lowest efficiency) because of atmospheric stability that currently characterize this atmospheric pattern. Our approach helps to better understand the relationship of WTs on the seasonal and spatial variability of rainfall, runoff and sediment yield with a regional scale based on the large dataset and number of soil erosion experimental stations

Multiancestry analysis of the HLA locus in Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s diseases uncovers a shared adaptive immune response mediated by HLA-DRB1*04 subtypes

Across multiancestry groups, we analyzed Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) associations in over 176,000 individuals with Parkinson’s disease (PD) and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) versus controls. We demonstrate that the two diseases share the same protective association at the HLA locus. HLA-specific fine-mapping showed that hierarchical protective effects of HLA-DRB1*04 subtypes best accounted for the association, strongest with HLA-DRB1*04:04 and HLA-DRB1*04:07, and intermediary with HLA-DRB1*04:01 and HLA-DRB1*04:03. The same signal was associated with decreased neurofibrillary tangles in postmortem brains and was associated with reduced tau levels in cerebrospinal fluid and to a lower extent with increased Aβ42. Protective HLA-DRB1*04 subtypes strongly bound the aggregation-prone tau PHF6 sequence, however only when acetylated at a lysine (K311), a common posttranslational modification central to tau aggregation. An HLA-DRB1*04-mediated adaptive immune response decreases PD and AD risks, potentially by acting against tau, offering the possibility of therapeutic avenues

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries